Affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the demand for global toy market in 2023 was suppressed first and then increased. As the world's largest producer and exporter of toys, China's traditional toy exports have shifted from negative to positive from October 2023 to November, with exports of 210.480 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8 percent year-on-year.
Looking forward to 2024, although market demand shows signs of gradual improvement, as pointed out by the central economic working conference, "the world economic situation is still complex and severe, the recovery is unstable and unbalanced, and all kinds of derivative risks caused by the impact of epidemic situation cannot be ignored". There are still many uncertain factors in toy market in the future. Therefore, we sort out the analysis and research of the problems of general concern in the industry, hoping to help the production and operation of the enterprise.
01 what will the global economy be like this year
Toys are non necessities of life, and market demand is closely related to economic development. So we first study and analyze the trend of global economic situation this year.
COVID-19 is still wreaking havoc in the world, especially in Europe and America, which is the main consumer market of toys, but economists are generally optimistic about the world economic development in 2024. Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, the five largest financial institutions on Wall Street, are optimistic that the world economy will start to shake in 2024, and then rebound sharply with the boost of vaccines and more fiscal stimulus measures, with an expected range of 5-6.4%.
Economists are particularly optimistic about China's economy. Louis gaulous, head of economic research for Asia at Oxford Institute of economics, believes that China's economic recovery will be further consolidated in the first half of this year, and GDP is expected to grow by about 19 per cent in the first quarter. The Hong Kong Trade Development Bureau of China is also optimistic about Hong Kong's economic outlook this year, and it is predicted that the overall export value of Hong Kong will rise by 5% annually in 2024.
In all aspects, the global economic development in 2024 is expected to turn negative positive and has good growth. Under the background of economic recovery, the demand of toy consumption market is expected to maintain a growth trend.
02 the positive and negative effects of epidemic on Industry
The impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak on the toy industry is more complicated: early last year, quarantine measures prevented many factories from shutting down and shutting down production, and the industry was seriously damaged. Fortunately, by the second quarter, with the release of the epidemic situation, the production of enterprises gradually returned to normal. As the world's largest toy production and export country, China's toy industry has also been basically functioning normally; unexpectedly, due to the spread of epidemic, many countries have implemented home-based isolation measures, which has resulted in parents increasing toy consumption for their children, and the market demand is extremely prosperous, and online toy industry has been expanded Sales have increased significantly, and this is still on. Therefore, 2024 is an opportunity and challenge for the toy industry.
Opportunities: as the main consumer area of toys in the world, the epidemic has been rampant so far. The measures of home isolation adopted by countries make outdoor toys, puzzles, building blocks and other products quite popular. In the United States, toy sales rose 19 percent in the first three quarters of last year. The sales of toys on multiple online platforms increased by more than 50% year on year. The development of cross-border e-commerce is particularly bright. Guangdong, as China's largest toy and export base, saw a significant increase of 79.08% in the first three quarters of last year, including "other trade" of cross-border e-commerce exports. In the past, toy export mainly consists of two ways: general trade and processing trade. In recent years, the "other trade" has grown rapidly. By the third quarter of last year, Guangdong toy "other trade" export exceeded "general trade", and became the second major force of product export. The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce shows that the export amount of toys in Guangdong exceeded the "general trade". This is expected to continue in 2024.
On the challenge side: "the world is undergoing a great change in the past century". If the world economy recovers as expected by major financial institutions in 2024, it is likely that the price of raw materials will continue to rise on the basis of a sharp increase in last year, while trade protectionism will still rise. The export enterprises should pay special attention to that in December last year, the central working conference focused on "deepening the marketization reform of interest rate exchange rate and maintaining the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level". It is not expected that RMB will rise rapidly against the US dollar in the short term last year. However, in view of the global optimistic economic development of China, the RMB exchange rate is believed to be strong. In terms of production cost, the state clearly proposes to "improve the proportion of labor remuneration in the initial distribution, improve the wage system and improve the reasonable growth mechanism of wages", so it is expected that the labor cost will still rise in the future. In this industrial economy background, it is a problem that enterprises must pay attention to to strengthen product innovation and improve product added value.
03 which products are more popular with consumers
Although the demand of toy market was relatively prosperous last year, many products sold well, but some products were not so good to sell. For example, the sales of doll and plush toys in the U.S. market in the first three quarters decreased year on year. Even the products of brand companies are not necessarily good for sale. The sales of remote control interactive dolls of a famous toy brand in Canada fell 24.5% year on year in the third quarter, and preschool and girls toys decreased by 10.6%. Through the study of toy sales in 2023, the market consumption has the following obvious trend.
Intellectual toys and parent-child interactive toys and other products continue to sell well: Puzzle and other intelligent toys have always been the favorite in the market. These products are of the same price and have the functions of parent-child interaction. Last year, they became one of the most popular products in European and American toy market; Guangdong toy export data also reflected this. In the first three quarters of last year, the export amount of toys in China increased by 1.9%, but the export of intellectual toys in Guangdong Province was negative The year-on-year growth was 24.49%. Whether from the sales history, data analysis and market trend, intelligent toys will still be the hot products of this year.
Outdoor toys and products with relatively low prices are better sold: in the major consumer markets of toys in the world, outdoor toys such as beach toys, water guns and ball games have been popular. Last year, children's plastic swimming pools have become popular products due to the epidemic. Carefully study the "hottest toys" recommended by professional media such as toy news, the sales of toys on various e-commerce platforms and relevant information. Traditional toys such as building blocks and dolls are still the main products in the market, and the products that are stable in the hot list are mostly below $20. Outdoor toys and cheap traditional toys are expected to continue to work in the light of the global spread of the epidemic this year and the decline in household income.
04 it is advisable to increase the development of internal circulation market
Whether the world economy will recover as financial institutions expect this year, the situation of China's foreign trade is still grim and complex. Because, the Sino US trade war has not been concluded so far. Trade protectionism led by the United States obviously has to depress China's economic development. Some developing countries such as India also take toys and other light industrial products as key development projects to fight against Chinese products. Therefore, "building a new development pattern with domestic and international circulation as the main body and promoting each other" has become a new strategy for China's economic development in the future. Therefore, enterprises should actively expand domestic market by examining the current situation.
In fact, China's toy market still has a great prospect. At present, China is the second largest toy consumption market in the world after the United States. In 2022, China's children are about 235 million, toy market consumption is about 84.92 billion yuan, and the per capita consumption of children is only about $56. Compared with that of European and American countries and other developed countries in the world, children's toys per capita consumption in 2010 has exceeded 300 US dollars in 2010, which is far from that of developed countries such as Europe and America and Japan.
The proposal of the CPC Central Committee on the formulation of the 14th five-year plan for national economic and social development and the vision of 2015 issued last year put forward that by 2035, China will "achieve the level of middle developed countries per capita GDP" At that time, only the per capita consumption of children is 300 US dollars, and the size of China's toy market is more than five times that of the present, that is, the annual consumption reaches more than 400billion yuan; if the per capita consumption of children's toys in China is in line with the level of developed countries, the market size is believed to double again.
The huge potential of China toy market has already attracted international capital attention. Foreign enterprises such as toy anti Doucheng and LEGO have increased the investment in China's toy market. As a Chinese toy enterprise, it actively participates in the construction of domestic large circulation market, and has the advantages of time, land, people and people, and believes that it will be easier to achieve results.
05 the prospect of industrial development is still bright
Because of the growing demand of toy market, it is caused by the measures of home isolation. Some people worry about whether the demand of toy market will also decrease sharply in the future as the epidemic situation is controlled.
Such a worry is not really a worry. However, toys are different from necessities of life, have the attributes of creative products and the market demand is full of elasticity. As long as the enterprise can develop enough creative products, it can stimulate consumption and expand the market capacity. Therefore, as long as the enterprises pay close attention to the market and actively develop and innovate, the market demand can be expanded rapidly.
Steve Pachelb, China's novel coronavirus pneumonia, said that as an important producer, consumer and consumer, China's global toy industry will not change its status as a new crown pneumonia epidemic. China toy manufacturing industry has a perfect industrial chain, advanced equipment factories and excellent employees, which has laid a unique advantage position in the toy industry. He even believes that 2024 is expected to surpass the United States to become the world's largest toy consumer market.
